SportsLine model projects Under in NBA Western Conference finals Game 7

The SportsLine Projection Model has released its betting predictions for Game 7 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference finals, pitting the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs. The algorithm, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has identified the Thunder as 3.5-point favourites for the decisive match at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

The Spurs forced the seventh and final game with a commanding 118-91 victory on Thursday, despite entering the series as the second seed in the West with a 62-20 record. The Thunder, holding the top seed with a 64-18 record, boast a 6-1 home court record during the playoffs. Tipoff for the contest is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

In terms of total points, the model projects an 'Under' on the total points line of 211.5, forecasting a combined score of 209 points. Historical data supports this projection, with the 'Under' hitting in two of the past three head-to-head matchups between the teams and in 53 of the last 100 Spurs games. The 'Under' has also performed well in Spurs games against teams allowing 102 or more points, standing at 52-45-1 in those scenarios.

Player projections indicate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the Thunder with 30.2 points, while Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 26.6 points. The model forecasts five Spurs players to score 10.5 points or more, and four Thunder players to score 10.3 points or more. The 'Under' hits in 58% of the simulations, according to the model's data.

SportsLine’s model entered the second week of the conference finals with a 26-10 record, or 72%, on top-rated NBA spread picks. The platform claims to have returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The Spurs lead the all-time series 128-108, including a 22-18 edge in the postseason.