SportsLine model projects Scheffler’s decline and Young’s slump ahead of 2026 PGA Championship
A proprietary algorithm built by DFS pro Mike McClure has simulated the second major of the year 10,000 times, casting doubt on Cameron Young’s major prospects and noting a drop in Scottie Scheffler’s approach play.
The 2026 PGA Championship begins on Thursday morning at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, marking the venue’s second major championship. Scottie Scheffler enters as the +480 favourite, seeking to become the fourth player in the stroke-play era to win back-to-back PGA Championships, having claimed the 2025 title by five strokes at Quail Hollow. Rory McIlroy sits at +950, aiming to become the first golfer since 1975 to win the Masters and the PGA Championship in the same calendar year.
A computer model by SportsLine, constructed by DFS professional Mike McClure, has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to project outcomes. The model, which has correctly identified winners in 17 majors including the 2026 Masters, has produced projections that challenge the conventional wisdom surrounding the field’s top contenders.
The simulation predicts that Cameron Young, currently the +1200 third favourite, will fail to finish in the top five. Despite a breakout season that includes victories at the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship, Young holds a 0-for-19 record in major tournaments. The model cites his 50th-place ranking in strokes gained: putting as a critical vulnerability, particularly given his lack of experience on Aronimink’s fast, contoured greens.
Scheffler’s underlying metrics have also drawn scrutiny from the model. While the World No. 1 has secured six top-10 finishes in nine starts this year, his strokes gained: approach the green has dropped to 40th on the tour, a significant decline from leading the tour in the category in 2025. This statistical shift is viewed as a potential liability at a course that rewards precision on approach shots.
McIlroy’s recent form presents another variable. Following back-to-back Masters victories in 2025, he finished 19th at the Truist Championship and has recorded only one other top-10 finish outside of Augusta this season. However, the model notes his historical elevation of play at majors, where he has recorded two victories and two top-three finishes at the PGA Championship.
Other notable narratives include Brooks Koepka, who is at +3500 and aiming to become the fourth player to win at least four PGA Championships, and Jordan Spieth, at +5500, who is attempting to complete the career Grand Slam. The tournament field also includes a wide range of longshots, with odds extending beyond +100,000 for several competitors.
The 2026 PGA Championship serves as the second major of the year, with history playing a central role in the betting markets. Tiger Woods remains the most recent player to win back-to-back PGA Championships, achieving the feat in 2006 and 2007. As the field prepares for Thursday’s start, the SportsLine model’s projections suggest that underlying statistical trends may outweigh recent headline victories.
