SportsLine model projects low-scoring affair for Orioles-Red Sox
Projections indicate total runs will fall under 10.5 as Boston hosts Baltimore at Fenway Park
SportsLine’s computer model has projected that the total runs in the Major League Baseball contest between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox will fall under 10.5. The simulation, which has run 10,000 iterations of the matchup, estimates both teams will score just above four runs on average. The Red Sox are currently listed as -115 money-line favourites for the game at Fenway Park.
Entering Week 11 of the 2026 season, the model reports a 17-5 success rate on top-rated MLB picks. The Orioles sit fourth in the AL East with a 29-33 record, while the Red Sox are last in the division at 26-34. Starting pitchers for the contest are Trevor Rogers for Baltimore and Brayan Bello for Boston.
Historical data cited by the model indicates the Red Sox have gone Under in 65 per cent of home games and 53 per cent of total games this season. The model projects three Red Sox players to have at least 1.7 total bases, led by Willson Contreras with 2.11. For the Orioles, Gunnar Henderson is projected to lead with 1.89 total bases.
Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.84 ERA) is set to pitch for Baltimore, countered by Boston RHP Brayan Bello (2-5, 5.63 ERA). The game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
The model previously excelled at home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. The model has set its sights on Orioles vs. Red Sox and has locked in its picks and MLB predictions.
