SportsLine model projects Josh Allen as top fantasy quarterback for 2026 NFL season

SportsLine has published its 2026 fantasy football positional rankings, draft advice, and average draft position (ADP) data following 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season. The model identifies Josh Allen as the top quarterback, Bijan Robinson as the leading running back, Puka Nacua as the premier wide receiver, and Trey McBride as the number one tight end. The release includes tiered rankings and sleeper picks for all positions.

The projections are derived from SportsLine’s computer model, which has a documented history of identifying performance trends. The firm notes that its previous simulations accurately predicted Daniel Jones’ performance in Indianapolis, Terry McLaurin’s down year, and Tetairoa McMillan’s breakout campaign. The model also correctly projected De’Von Achane as an elite running back for 2025 and has previously identified sleepers such as A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry in earlier seasons.

At the quarterback position, the model places Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills in a class of his own. Allen is ranked first with an average draft position of No. 22 overall. The analysis highlights his consistency, noting he has finished first or second in positional points in each of the last six years. Despite recording his fewest passing yards and touchdowns in that period last season, his rushing volume provides a high fantasy floor, with 41 rushing touchdowns over the last three years.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is ranked second, while Drake Maye of the New England Patriots takes the third spot. The model suggests Jackson is poised to bounce back following an injury-plagued 2025 season, particularly with new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. Maye is projected to remain in the MVP conversation after improving his supporting cast with the addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Other quarterbacks in the top tier include Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels.

In the backfield, Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons is the top-ranked running back, followed by Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions and Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts. Robinson is noted for his efficiency gains, leading all running backs in receptions and receiving yards last season. Gibbs is expected to reach his full potential with the departure of David Montgomery, while Taylor enters a contract year after leading the NFL in touchdowns for the second consecutive season.

The wide receiver rankings are led by Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams, who led the NFL in receiving yards per game in 2025. Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals is ranked second, with the model noting his production remains strong regardless of quarterback health. Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks rounds out the top three, benefiting from an improved rapport with quarterback Sam Darnold.

Tight end rankings place Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals at number one. The model points to his significantly higher production when playing with Jacoby Brissett compared to Kyler Murray. Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders is ranked second, having finished second in fantasy points per game in 2025 despite missing games due to injury. Colston Loveland of the Chicago Bears is ranked third, having established himself as the team’s top tight end following an injury to Cole Kmet.

The release includes cheat sheets, average draft position data, tiered rankings, and sleeper picks for all positions. Managers are advised to utilise these tiers to avoid reaching on players during drafts. The data is predictive in nature, based on computer simulations rather than confirmed historical performance for the 2026 season.