SportsLine model predicts Sam Burns victory at 2026 Open Championship
Mike McClure’s system identifies Burns as the favourite while advising against backing Lucas Herbert, who has dropped to three strokes off the lead.
Sam Burns holds a two-shot advantage heading into the final round of the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, following a fifth-under-par 65 on Saturday. The American golfer, who recently became a father, extends his lead over Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox, who both tied the major championship record with a 62 on Friday. Burns is currently priced as the +125 favourite in betting markets via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Lucas Herbert, who held an early two-stroke lead entering the weekend, dropped to three shots behind after shooting a one-over 71 on Saturday. Although Herbert tied the major record with a 62 on Friday, his recent form has prompted a shift in market sentiment. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler trails by six shots after a round of 70, while Bryson DeChambeau and Ludvig Åberg sit at six under par.
Mike McClure’s SportsLine model, which has reportedly predicted 17 major winners including five consecutive Masters titles, has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to generate its Sunday projections. The model identifies Burns as the primary favourite and highlights Åberg as a strong value pick for a top-five finish at +125 odds. Åberg has recovered from a first-round 71 to shoot rounds of 66 and 67, positioning him well for a potential breakthrough.
Conversely, the model advises fading Lucas Herbert, predicting he will fall out of the top 10 in the final standings. Analysts cite Herbert’s second-round 62 as an outlier based on his major history and current form, recommending against backing him in positional bets such as top-5 or top-10 finishes. Herbert is currently listed at +2000 to win, a price the model considers unattractive given the projected outcome.
Other notable contenders within striking distance include Tommy Fleetwood at five under par and Jon Rahm at four under. The model’s simulations suggest a competitive field, with Kim priced at +500 and Fox at +750 to claim the Claret Jug. The final round concludes on Sunday, with the model’s projected leaderboard available through SportsLine’s premium membership service.
