SportsLine model predicts 2026 NFL breakouts, highlighting Hampton and Willis
A computational model that simulated the NFL season 10,000 times has identified Chargers running back Omarion Hampton and Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis as key value targets for fantasy football drafts.
SportsLine has released its 2026 Fantasy football rankings and breakout predictions, utilising a model that simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times. The report, published by CBS Sports, highlights specific players projected to outperform their average draft positions, with a focus on value picks for fantasy league managers.
The model identifies Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton as a primary breakout candidate. Hampton, who played in only nine games during his 2025 rookie season due to injury, recorded 737 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. The projection is bolstered by the expected return of Pro Bowl offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, along with the addition of Tyler Biadasz, which is cited as a significant improvement to the team's offensive line health.
Consequently, SportsLine’s model slots Hampton ahead of Kyren Williams and Javonte Williams, despite Hampton holding a lower average draft position of No. 20. The report notes that Hampton’s durability in college, where he did not miss a game due to injury in his final two years at UNC, supports the projection that he will be a more consistent contributor in 2026.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis is also flagged as a high-value option. After signing a three-year, $67.5 million deal with Miami in the offseason, Willis is ranked by the model above Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Bo Nix. Despite an average draft position of No. 147, the model suggests Willis could serve as a strong second-string quarterback option due to his running ability and the potential for high statistical output if the team plays from behind.
The credibility of the model is underscored by its previous accuracy, including the prediction of Tetairoa McMillan’s 2025 rookie season. McMillan finished as the 17th-ranked wide receiver in PPR leagues and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, having recorded 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. The model has also previously identified Daniel Jones’ 2025 performance and other historical sleepers such as A.J. Brown and Jonathan Taylor.
The report also identifies a specific tight end as a top-8 option, ranking the player ahead of established stars Travis Kelce and George Kittle. However, the identity of this player, along with the full rankings for every position, is restricted to SportsLine subscribers.
