SportsLine model flags value in longshots ahead of 2026 3M Open
The PGA Tour event begins Thursday at TPC Twin Cities, with the model advising against backing Maverick McNealy despite his short odds.
Mike McClure’s SportsLine computer model has generated betting predictions for the 2026 3M Open after simulating the tournament 10,000 times. The PGA Tour event is scheduled to commence on Thursday at TPC Twin Cities in the Minneapolis metropolitan area. The model, which claims to have correctly predicted 17 major championships, has identified Scottie Scheffler as the betting favourite at +270 odds.
Scheffler enters the tournament seeking his second win of the year, following a fourth-place finish at the British Open. There is a significant disparity between the favourite and the rest of the field. Kurt Kitayama, who won the tournament last year, is the second favourite at +2200. Maverick McNealy is the only other golfer with odds shorter than +3000, listed at +2700.
The model advises against backing McNealy, citing recent poor form and a weak approach game that does not suit the course. McNealy missed the cut at the 3M Open last year and recently missed the cut at The Open, placing 55th in his previous tournament and 32nd before that. He ranks 113th in strokes gained: approach the green and 122nd in driving accuracy percentage.
Conversely, the model identifies Johnny Keefer at +6500 as a strong value pick. The 25-year-old placed third at the Scottish Open two weeks ago, marking his third top-10 finish of the season. Keefer ranks second in greens in regulation percentage, with top-10 rankings in driving distance and strokes gained: off-the-tee. The course at TPC Twin Cities emphasises iron play over putting, which aligns with Keefer’s elite ball-striking capabilities.
The model is also targeting two other massive longshots with odds of at least +6000 to make a run for the title, though specific names beyond Keefer are not detailed in the provided data. The full projected leaderboard and additional picks are available through the SportsLine membership.
