SportsLine model favours Scheffler over Schauffele in St. Jude Championship preview
Mike McClure’s proprietary algorithm identifies Scottie Scheffler as the tournament favourite while advising against backing Xander Schauffele, citing statistical trends over recent results.
Mike McClure’s proprietary computer model, developed by SportsLine, has released its betting projections for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship following 10,000 simulations of the event. The model identifies Scottie Scheffler as the tournament favourite at +500 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, while advising against backing Xander Schauffele, predicting he will not finish in the top 10 despite his +1800 odds.
The tournament, which marks the opening round of the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs, begins on Thursday at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. The field comprises the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings, with a $20 million purse and quadrupled points on offer compared to standard PGA Tour events. The top 50 finishers will advance to the BMW Championship.
Schauffele’s exclusion from the top 10 in the model’s projections is described as a surprise, given his second-place finish at the Rocket Classic two weeks prior and his status as the third-lowest priced contender. However, the model notes that this was his first top-10 finish since May and that he remains winless during the 2026 PGA Tour schedule. Although Schauffele finished second at this venue in 2024, he has not placed inside the top 20 in his other three appearances, leading the algorithm to dismiss his current odds.
Conversely, the model recommends Sam Burns at +2200 odds as a top-three contender. Burns has recorded top-7 finishes at the Masters, the Memorial, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship this season. He currently ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total and third in strokes gained: putting, metrics the model identifies as key indicators for success at TPC Southwind.
The model, which claims to have correctly predicted 17 major championships including the 2026 Masters, is also targeting a longshot with odds higher than +3000 to make a strong run. Other notable contenders in the projected field include Rory McIlroy at +1200 and Tommy Fleetwood at +2000, though the model’s primary focus remains on Scheffler’s favourite status and Burns’ value proposition.
