SportsLine model favours Scheffler at 2026 Open Championship
The 2026 Open Championship commences on Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, with SportsLine’s computer model projecting Scottie Scheffler as the favourite.
SportsLine’s computer model, developed by DFS professional Mike McClure, has released its predictions for the 2026 Open Championship ahead of the tournament’s commencement on Thursday, July 16. The model, which has simulated the event at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, 10,000 times, identifies defending champion Scottie Scheffler as the favourite at +700 odds. Rory McIlroy follows as the second choice at +850.
The 2026 Open Championship serves as the final major of the 2026 PGA Tour season. The field includes the year’s first three major winners: McIlroy, who claimed the Masters; Aaron Rai, the PGA Championship winner; and Wyndham Clark, the U.S. Open champion. The betting odds, sourced from FanDuel and subject to change, list Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick next on the board at +1500, with Jon Rahm at +2000 and Xander Schauffele at +2700.
While the market has placed significant weight on Fleetwood, the SportsLine model advises fading the English golfer. The algorithm predicts Fleetwood will not finish in the top five, citing a 27th-place finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and a missed cut in 2024. The model notes that Fleetwood has recorded no finishes better than tied 11th in any major this year, suggesting better value exists elsewhere on the odds board.
Conversely, the model identifies Ludvig Åberg as a top-three contender despite longer odds of +3300. Åberg, who finished in the top 25 at the British Open last year and achieved a tied fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship this year, is highlighted for his driving distance and accuracy. The model suggests these attributes make him a strong candidate at Royal Birkdale, a course where Jordan Spieth won the Open Championship the last time it was held in 2017.
SportsLine’s proprietary algorithm claims a history of accurately predicting major outcomes, having nailed 17 majors entering the weekend. This record includes five consecutive Masters titles and last year’s PGA and Open Championships. The model’s projections are available through SportsLine memberships, which include access to Paramount+ Premium for coverage of NFL, UFC, and select PGA events.
