SportsLine model advises fading Open leader Lucas Herbert despite two-stroke advantage
A computer simulation by Mike McClure projects Herbert will not finish in the top 10, while recommending Jon Rahm as a value pick at +1500.
The 2026 Open Championship enters the weekend at Royal Birkdale with Lucas Herbert holding a two-stroke lead at eight under par. However, a proprietary computer model developed by DFS professional Mike McClure for SportsLine has advised against backing the leader, predicting he will not finish in the top 10. The model, which claims to have correctly predicted the winners of 17 major championships, cites Herbert’s lack of a significant major championship track record as the primary reason for this assessment.
Herbert’s current position follows a second-round 62 on Friday, but his historical performance in major events does not meet the model’s criteria for confidence. His best major finish is a tied 13th, and his highest placement at The Open was a tied 15th in 2022. Consequently, the model suggests fading Herbert in weekend betting markets, despite him sitting third on the odds board at +950 according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favourite at +550, followed by Cameron Young at +700. The leaderboard features a tight pack of contenders, with Young, Sam Burns, Jon Rahm, Robert MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, and Scheffler all within four shots of the lead. Bryson DeChambeau, initially finishing Round 2 at seven under par, was assessed a two-stroke penalty for a rule infraction on the fifth hole, adjusting his total to five under par.
In contrast to the advice on Herbert, the model identifies Jon Rahm as a strong value pick at +1500. Rahm enters the weekend four shots off the lead and has shown mixed results in majors this year, missing the cut at the U.S. Open but finishing second at the PGA Championship. The model projects a strong weekend run for Rahm, noting his steady play at Royal Birkdale with rounds of 67 and 69.
The SportsLine model simulated the tournament 10,000 times to generate these predictions, claiming a history of profitability that includes the 2026 Masters and the previous year’s PGA and Open Championships. While the model highlights Rahm and other longshots, it also notes a specific golfer going off around 30-1 who is projected to make a surprising run, though their identity was not disclosed in the provided data.
