SportsLine expert highlights home run props for MLB Friday slate
Analysis points to historical player-pitcher splits and weather conditions as primary factors for August 14 betting picks.
SportsLine expert Matt Severance has released his MLB home run prop betting selections for Friday, August 14, focusing on specific player-pitcher matchups that offer statistical value. The analysis highlights opportunities involving Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and San Francisco Giants third baseman Rafael Devers, against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole and Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland respectively.
The 2026 home run race has tightened significantly, with Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber currently leading the majors with 37 home runs after hitting two in the Field of Dreams game. Schwarber is the -125 favourite to win the title, following a period where four players were tied for the lead with 35 home runs as of August 11. This marks the first time since 1982 that at least four players were tied for the MLB home run lead so late in the season.
Guerrero Jr. enters Friday’s contest batting .262 with seven home runs in 2026, including only one since July 11. He has not hit a home run at home this season, a notable deviation from his previous form. However, Severance points to Guerrero’s historical success against Cole, where he is 12-for-35 with a .629 slugging percentage, three home runs, and four doubles. Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk is also noted as a viable option, holding a .375 batting average against Cole with a home run and double, while batting .361 in August.
In the National League, the Giants host the Rockies at Oracle Park, where winds are blowing out at 12.5 mph. Devers, who has 24 home runs this season with 14 of them giving the Giants a lead or tying the game, faces Freeland, who has struggled significantly on the road. Freeland is 0-7 with a 7.81 ERA in 11 away starts, allowing 12 home runs and holding opponents to a .320 batting average away from home. Devers is 2-for-10 against Freeland, with both hits being home runs.
Despite Devers’ recent slump of five hits in his past 30 at-bats, the matchup against Freeland’s poor road performance remains a focal point for the betting analysis. The Giants are currently last in the NL West, while the Rockies are also struggling to avoid last place in their division. Both teams have been inactive in the draft lottery implications, with the Giants attempting to manage Devers’ $313.5 million contract through 2033.
The 2026 MLB regular season continues with these Friday matchups, leading into the postseason which is scheduled to commence on September 29 with the Wild Card Series. The World Series is set to begin on October 23, with a potential conclusion on October 31.
