SportsLine expert backs high-scoring Argentina-England World Cup semifinal
Defensive vulnerabilities and recent scoring trends point to an open game between the defending champions and the six-decade title drought holders.
SportsLine analyst Martin Green has released his betting outlook for the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal between Argentina and England, scheduled for Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET at Atlanta Stadium. Green, who is currently riding a 19-7 winning streak with his World Cup selections, recommends the over 2.5 total goals market for the 90-minute result.
The recommendation is grounded in significant defensive concerns for both squads. Green notes that Argentina’s defence is compromised by Cristian Romero’s propensity for errors and Lisandro Martínez’s aerial weaknesses, which could exploit England’s attacking threats. Conversely, England’s backline has been described as leaking goals, with goalkeeper Jordan Pickford appearing shaky in recent tournament play.
Recent historical data supports the high-scoring projection. Five of the last seven meetings between the two nations have seen more than 2.5 goals scored. Within the current tournament, all three knockout matches for both England and Argentina have exceeded this threshold. England has averaged 3.7 total goals in their last three contests, while Argentina has averaged 4.7 combined goals in their last four matches.
Market odds from FanDuel Sportsbook reflect a tight contest. England is listed as a slight favourite to advance at -120, with Argentina at +104. For the 90-minute money line, England sits at +165, Argentina at +200, and a draw at +190. The over/under for total goals is set at 2.5.
Green’s track record adds weight to his analysis. Beyond his current World Cup success, he posted a +211.25 return in the Champions League and +100 in the Bundesliga last year. He has also been profitable in the 2026 tournament, maintaining an 18-8 record over his last 26 UEFA Champions League picks.
England enters the semifinal seeking its first World Cup title since 1966, ending a 60-year drought. They defeated Norway 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Argentina, the defending champions, aims for its fourth overall title after beating Switzerland 3-1 in extra time.
Lionel Messi, aged 39, has adapted his playing style to conserve energy for the knockout stages. Reports indicate he is walking 47 per cent of the distance in recent matches, a tactical shift that may influence the match dynamics as the two global powerhouses prepare to meet in Atlanta.
