SportsLine analyst targets four MLB batters for Monday home run props

SportsLine expert Angelo Magliocca has identified four key MLB home run player props for Monday, July 20, focusing on Fernando Tatis Jr., Curtis Mead, Manny Machado and Luis Valdez. Magliocca, who operates under the name Amags, has accumulated a profit of 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays across the 2022 to 2025 MLB seasons, alongside an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays. His selections for Monday’s full 15-game slate rely on specific pitching matchups, recent player performance metrics and environmental variables.

Magliocca has selected Nationals slugger Curtis Mead to hit a home run against Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland. The analysis points to Freeland’s struggles against right-handed batters, who have recorded 16 home runs in 65 innings against him. Mead, who has hit seven home runs in 100 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, is positioned to exploit Freeland’s reliance on the four-seam fastball and cutter, pitches that have yielded poor expected weighted on-base average figures for right-handed hitters. The pick also factors in high altitude and 100-degree weather conditions at the venue.

Padres players Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are both highlighted for their matchups against Braves pitcher Bryce Elder. Tatis Jr., who has hit home runs in back-to-back games, is viewed as a strong candidate despite the Atlanta ballpark playing neutral to power numbers. Magliocca notes that Elder has allowed three home runs in his last start and seven across 26 innings in June, with right-handed batters hitting nearly .300 against him. Temperatures in the 80s and rising humidity are cited as environmental factors supporting the pick.

Manny Machado is also targeted against Elder, with Magliocca noting that the Padres infielder has hit 15 of his 19 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. Although Machado has not hit a home run since returning from the All-Star break, he has historically performed well against Elder in a small sample size. The analyst suggests Machado is poised to regain his power stroke given the specific matchup dynamics.

Yankees batter Luis Valdez is selected to hit a home run against Pirates pitcher Ryan Weathers. Valdez has recorded 12 home runs in 105 at-bats this season, with half coming against left-handed pitchers. Magliocca points out that Weathers has struggled against left-handed batters and notes that the Yankees bullpen was worked heavily on Sunday, potentially leaving them short of high-leverage relievers. Valdez, who is hitting near the top of the order, benefits from hot weather and a hitter-friendly environment.