SportsLine analyst highlights home run props amid MLB trade deadline speculation

SportsLine analyst Matt Severance has released his home run prop betting selections for Major League Baseball games on Friday, July 24, with a focus on specific player matchups as the league approaches its August 3 trade deadline. The analysis highlights Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker against Mets pitcher Sean Manaea, and Royals catcher Salvador Perez against Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal, while noting that the day’s slate is generally less favourable for home runs due to unfavourable weather conditions and the absence of games in hitter-friendly parks such as Cincinnati, Denver, and Sacramento.

Severance contextualised the selections by observing that the lack of games in power-heavy venues like Cincinnati and Denver reduces the overall probability of home runs. He also pointed to weather conditions at Citi Field, where a high of 76 degrees and sideways winds were expected to further suppress offensive output. Despite these environmental factors, Severance identified specific value in the Tucker-Manaea matchup, noting that Tucker is 8-for-22 off Manaea with four home runs and a 1.346 OPS, a significant improvement over his current season average of .689.

The analysis also delved into the broader implications of Tucker’s contract, which Severance suggested could become an "inciting incident" for a work stoppage in 2027 if owners insist on implementing a salary cap. Tucker, who signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers, is batting .236 with seven home runs this season, falling short of expectations for a player who has not reached 30 home runs since 2022. Severance noted that the Dodgers are paying $119.7 million for Tucker’s services this season, including luxury taxes, a figure that exceeds the Opening Day payrolls of 11 other teams.

In other key selections, Severance highlighted Salvador Perez, who recently tied the Detroit Tigers’ franchise home run record with his 317th career hit. This achievement makes Perez one of only three active players to hold his current team’s all-time home run record, alongside Mike Trout and Manny Machado. Severance praised Perez as a potential Hall of Famer and a top 15 catcher in history, noting his solid splits against Skubal, including four home runs in 39 at-bats.

The MLB trade deadline on August 3 was also a focal point of the analysis, with Severance speculating that Colorado’s Hunter Goodman could be a 30-homer hitter dealt before the deadline. He referenced Eugenio Suarez as the record holder for most home runs by a player traded mid-season, with 36 when dealt from Arizona to Seattle last July. Severance, who has been up $1,681 on MLB picks over the past four seasons, concluded that while the day’s conditions were not ideal for power, specific player matchups offered compelling betting opportunities.