Spain Favourites in World Cup Final as Opta Models Predict Victory Over Argentina
Supercomputer simulations give Spain a 59.6 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, while Lionel Messi seeks to cement his legacy against a Spanish side led by Lamine Yamal.
Spain and Argentina are set to contest the 2026 FIFA World Cup final at the New York-New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday, 19 July 2026. The match, scheduled to kick off at 19:00 GMT, marks only the second time these two nations have met in the tournament’s history, with their previous encounter occurring in the 1966 group stage. Since the turn of the century, Spain has held the upper hand in the fixture, winning three of their four clashes.
Opta’s supercomputer simulations favour Spain as the team to lift the trophy, assigning them a 59.6 per cent probability of victory compared to Argentina’s 40.4 per cent. When isolating results after 90 minutes, Spain emerged victorious in 45 per cent of the 25,000 pre-match runs, while a draw leading to extra time occurred in 29.0 per cent of scenarios. Argentina won in normal time in the remaining 26 per cent of simulations.
Slovenian referee Slavko Vincic has been appointed to officiate the final, becoming the first official from his country to lead a men’s World Cup final. The 46-year-old from Maribor previously presided over the 2024 UEFA Champions League final. His selection follows scrutiny of refereeing decisions involving Argentina during the tournament, including an incident where captain Lionel Messi avoided a red card against Algeria. FIFA’s head of refereeing, Pierluigi Collina, defended the integrity of the officials following formal complaints from Egypt after their 3-2 defeat.
Vincic has overseen three matches at the 2026 World Cup, issuing seven yellow cards and one red card, with no penalties awarded. His most recent assignment involved sending off Ecuador defender Piero Hincapie in the round of 32. He will be assisted by fellow Slovenians Tomaz Klancnik and Andraz Kovacic, while Germany’s Bastian Dankert serves as the video assistant referee. Vincic described his appointment as an "incredible honour" and a dream realised.
The event has drawn significant attention to the New York area, with over 80,000 spectators expected at the stadium and another 50,000 anticipated to watch from Central Park in Manhattan. Air quality concerns due to Canadian wildfire smoke have prompted health alerts, with New Jersey rated as "unhealthy for sensitive groups" on Thursday. However, a cold front is expected to dissipate the haze before the match.
Lionel Messi, who became the all-time leading scorer in men’s World Cup history with 17 goals during Argentina’s group stage victory over Austria, has shared an emotional message thanking his teammates and fans. The narrative of the final also highlights Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal, with many viewing the match as a symbolic passing of the torch. Meanwhile, Argentina’s ambassador to Israel presented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a jersey, with Netanyahu confirming his support for the defending champions.
