SP+ Model Projects Michigan State Spartans to Miss 2026 Bowl Eligibility

ESPN’s SP+ predictive algorithm has projected the Michigan State Spartans to record 4.4 wins in the 2026 college football season. The figure, which rounds to four victories, indicates the team will miss bowl eligibility, a milestone they have not achieved since 2021. The forecast mirrors the team’s 2025 performance and reflects recent struggles, including the departure of key contributors via the transfer portal.

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency created by Bill Connelly. It is widely considered one of the top predictive tools for the sport. The model’s low projection for Michigan State aligns with the program’s recent lack of success and the significant roster changes that occurred this offseason.

The prediction highlights a disparity within the conference. The model places Michigan at 7.5 wins, underscoring a clear gap between the Spartans and other Big Ten teams such as Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. This divergence suggests that while the broader conference may see improved performance, Michigan State is expected to remain at the lower end of the standings.

Potential factors for improvement include starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic outperforming projections. Additionally, a coaching upgrade under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald could serve as a variable to alter the outcome. These elements would need to occur for Michigan State to get closer to reaching bowl eligibility.

The 4.4-win projection indicates that the Spartans will not reach the six-win threshold typically required for bowl eligibility. The forecast serves as a mathematical baseline for the upcoming season, reflecting the challenges posed by the transfer portal departures and the transition to a new coaching staff.