SMU identified as value pick for 2026 ACC title amid Miami favourites status
CBS Sports analysis suggests SMU offers superior value to win the conference, citing quarterback Kevin Jennings’ experience and a favourable fixture list, despite Miami holding the shortest odds in the country.
Sports betting analysis from CBS Sports has identified the SMU Mustangs as the best value proposition to win the 2026 ACC championship, contrasting sharply with the Miami Hurricanes, who are currently the heavy favourites. While Miami holds the shortest odds in the nation for any conference title at -136 according to DraftKings, the assessment argues that the Mustangs, priced at +700, present a more compelling case for success in the upcoming season.
The analysis points to significant roster turnover at Miami as a primary reason to question their status as the overwhelming favourite. The Hurricanes must replace quarterback Carson Beck, along with key defensive pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr and Akheem Mesidor, and four offensive line starters. This contrasts with SMU’s stability, particularly at the quarterback position, where fifth-year senior Kevin Jennings provides substantial continuity in a conference where 11 of the 17 teams are expected to have a new starting quarterback.
Jennings’ track record is central to the argument for SMU’s potential. Over the past two seasons, he has compiled an 18-6 record, ranking third in the nation in wins during that period. He has also passed for 6,886 yards, ranking third in the FBS, and thrown 49 touchdowns, tying for eighth nationally. His experience is viewed as a critical advantage, especially given that SMU reached the College Football Playoff two years ago and narrowly missed the ACC Championship Game last season.
SMU’s schedule is also cited as a structural advantage, as the Mustangs avoid matchups against Miami, NC State, and Clemson. The season opener is set for a Monday night game at Florida State, followed by a Week 3 away fixture against Louisville. The analysis suggests that even a split of those early high-profile games could be sufficient to secure a spot in the conference title game in December.
Despite the positive outlook, the report acknowledges areas of concern for the Mustangs. The defence, which ranked 88th in the FBS in yards per game last season, must improve upon its 2024 performance where it ranked 26th, despite having only four returning defensive starters. Additionally, Jennings has thrown 14 interceptions over the last two seasons, and the running game, which ranked 95th nationally in 2025, requires support from a returning offensive line led by All-ACC tackle PJ Williams.
