Second round of 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs kicks off with Sabres hosting Canadiens in Buffalo
Game 1 of the second-round matchup takes place Wednesday at KeyBank Center, with the Sabres listed as the money-line favourite ahead of a contest where the over/under is set at 5.5 goals.
The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs second round commenced on Wednesday as the Buffalo Sabres hosted the Montreal Canadiens at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET for this fixture, which marks the eighth postseason meeting between the two franchises. In this series history, Montreal holds a 4-3 edge over Buffalo.
Buffalo advanced to this stage by defeating Boston in six games, securing their first series victory since 2007. The Canadiens reached the second round by eliminating Tampa in a seven-game contest characterised by alternating wins throughout the series. Prior to the playoffs, the two teams split their four regular-season matchups, suggesting a competitive balance that extends into this postseason encounter.
Current betting odds list the Buffalo Sabres as the -130 money-line favourite, requiring a wager of $130 to win $100. The over/under for total goals scored in the match is set at 5.5. These figures reflect the market assessment of a game where historical trends suggest a higher scoring output.
Data from SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, indicates a projection of 5.9 combined goals for this specific matchup. The model identifies the over on the total as a value play, citing that at least six goals have been scored in eight consecutive meetings between these teams, with an average of 7.3 combined goals over that span.
The simulation also projects Cole Caufield of Montreal and Tage Thompson of Buffalo to combine for an average of 1.02 goals in this game. Goalie performance remains a variable, with Jakub Dobes of Montreal ranking 29th in Goals Against Average and Alex Lyon of Buffalo ranked 28th in the same metric.
The model notes that entering the second round of the 2026 playoffs, top-rated money-line NHL picks have generated a +668 return. While these probabilistic forecasts and historical trends provide context for the matchup, they represent statistical projections rather than guaranteed outcomes for the game scheduled at KeyBank Center.
