Scientists warn 2027 could see worse heat due to El Niño and climate change
The United Nations Secretary-General has called for urgent climate action as the latest El Niño event is forecast to peak in 2027, amplifying the effects of global warming.
Record-breaking summer temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere have been attributed to the combined effects of climate change and an intensifying El Niño event. Experts predict that the El Niño's impact on global temperatures will lag and peak in 2027, potentially resulting in even more severe heatwaves. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called for urgent climate action, including ending fossil fuel dependence and accelerating the shift to renewables.
June and July marked the hottest two-month stretch in Europe since record-keeping began. The contiguous United States endured its hottest month on record in July, ending a record held since 1936 during the Dust Bowl era. South Korea also saw its highest-ever recorded temperature. Europe is identified as the world’s fastest-warming continent, second only to the Arctic. A study found that a similar heat wave in Europe in 1976 would have been about 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) cooler than current conditions due to climate change.
El Niño is a natural variation in ocean and atmospheric patterns where weakened trade winds allow heat stored in the central Pacific to warm the air, disrupting global weather patterns. It does not add new energy to the climate system but releases heat stored in the oceans into the atmosphere. Climate change has increased the baseline heat in the atmosphere and oceans, amplifying the effects of El Niño. The most recent El Niño developed in 2023 and ran into 2024, with 2024 being the hottest year on record.
The current El Niño is described as one of the fastest onsets in the observational record and is forecast to peak at over 3.5 °C above average, potentially making it the strongest on record. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather notes that in recent El Niño periods, record-breaking temperatures often occurred during the second calendar year of the event. The UN Secretary-General stated that El Niño conditions will "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
Individual preparedness measures suggested include buying air conditioners, installing solar and backup batteries, and upgrading home insulation. In the longer term, temperatures will keep climbing because we are still burning fossil fuels and driving climate change. As Guterres said in his statement, "The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis: ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all."
