Right-wing fragmentation in Makerfield byelection threatens Reform UK, boosts Labour
Polling shows Labour’s Andy Burnham leading Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, but a seven per cent share for Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd could prove decisive in the Greater Manchester seat.
The Makerfield byelection on 18 June 2026 is facing a significant disruption to the right-wing vote, with a new political entity, Restore Britain, drawing support away from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Founded by Rupert Lowe, a former Reform MP whose whip was suspended following allegations of bullying and verbal abuse, the party is fielding local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as its candidate. This development has created a three-way contest that political analysts warn could hand the seat to Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester.
A recent Survation poll of 369 respondents in the constituency, excluding undecided voters, placed Labour at 43 per cent, Reform UK at 40 per cent, and Restore Britain at 7 per cent. The poll suggests a tight race where a relatively small share of the vote for the third party could alter the outcome. Labour canvassers have reported growing support for Restore Britain on the doorstep, reinforcing concerns within Reform UK that the fragmentation of the right-wing electorate is benefiting the incumbent party.
The political split has drawn international attention, notably from US tech billionaire Elon Musk, who retweeted a post by Lowe supporting the new party. Farage criticised the intervention, suggesting it was an attempt to divide British politics. He told the Telegraph that Musk was supporting “a party that’s one man with a social media account” and expressed uncertainty about the billionaire’s motives, while Raheem Kassam, a former adviser to Farage, described Restore Britain as a “spite party” driven by personal grievances between Lowe and Farage.
Restore Britain’s platform is centred on a policy of “remigration,” which the party describes as the mass deportation of foreign-born legal residents who live in social housing or claim benefits. The campaign has recruited Scott Benton, a disgraced former Conservative MP who lost the whip in 2023, to run the Makerfield effort. Lowe has made inflammatory comments about immigrants, suggesting they be deported to a “midge-infested island,” remarks that reportedly caused discomfort for his candidate, Shepherd, during the campaign launch.
Reform UK has attempted to capitalise on the division, with its official X account posting “Vote Restore, get Burnham” and MP Sarah Pochin warning voters that supporting Lowe results in a Labour victory. Despite the criticism and polling data, Lowe has dismissed mainstream surveys as “establishment polls,” claiming his own data shows “incredible support” and urging supporters to ignore the political noise. The byelection outcome will likely serve as a test for whether Restore Britain is a fleeting online phenomenon or a deeper shift in voter sentiment.