Renewed Ethiopia fighting raises civilian and regional risks
An analysis by An Africanist Perspective says renewed hostilities could deepen instability and urges political negotiations and restraint.
Large-scale fighting broke out in northern Ethiopia on 23 September between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara Fano militias, and federal forces and allied Tigrayan forces, according to An Africanist Perspective. The source does not specify the year.
The article attributes primary responsibility for the escalation to the TPLF, saying it launched ground assaults alongside a new rebel alliance that has pledged to overthrow the government. It says the fighting followed the TPLF’s return to power in Tigray nearly five months earlier and an intensifying federal drone campaign.
The renewed conflict follows the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous Tigray war. The article describes that agreement as imperfect and says commitments and grievances remain unresolved, but argues it should be given a chance.
The analysis warns that civilians face severe risks and that foreign involvement could prolong the conflict. It says regional rivalries and divisions among armed groups may complicate a settlement, though these are projected risks rather than confirmed outcomes.
The article places the fighting within longstanding disputes over Ethiopia’s federal structure, identity and governance. It cites Afrobarometer survey results as evidence of public concern about the state’s ability to prevent or resolve violence, while arguing that institutional problems, rather than widespread social hostility, are central to instability.
It calls on Ethiopia’s federal government to exercise restraint and pursue meaningful negotiations, and on Tigrayan political and security actors to avoid armed mobilisation. It also urges external powers to address their involvement through transparent diplomacy.
