Regression to the mean: Five NFL clubs face steeper 2026 schedules

ESPN analyst Dan Barnwell has identified five National Football League teams that are statistically poised to see their win totals decline in the 2026 season. The analysis flags the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, and New England Patriots as squads whose 2025 success was driven by factors unlikely to repeat, including exceptional turnover margins, favourable late-game luck, and historically easy schedules.

The Chicago Bears, who finished 2025 with an 11-6 record, are highlighted for their league-leading turnover margin of plus-22. Barnwell notes that the team’s defensive performance was heavily reliant on a 66.7% fumble recovery rate, a statistical outlier that rarely sustains itself. With seven of their 13 most-used defensive players departing the roster, including four key starters, the Bears face a significant structural challenge in maintaining their defensive cohesion.

The Denver Broncos, who posted a 14-3 record, are projected to regress to a 10 or 11-win season. Their 2025 campaign was characterised by a defence that showed signs of fatigue down the stretch and an offence that benefited from generous late-game breaks. Despite retaining 31 of their 33 most-used players, the analysis suggests that the specific combination of health and luck that propelled Denver to the AFC Championship Game is difficult to replicate.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars, the jump from 4-13 to 13-4 is viewed as a classic case of regression to the mean. The team’s success was partly driven by facing backup quarterbacks in over 40% of dropbacks during the second half of the season. Unless Jacksonville can continue to disrupt opposing signal-callers at a similar rate, the analysis predicts a significant drop in their win total, compounded by a schedule that includes only six true home games.

The Carolina Panthers, who secured a playoff berth despite an 8-9 record, are expected to struggle against a significantly tougher 2026 slate. Having operated in the league’s weakest division, Carolina now faces the 13th toughest schedule in the NFL. The team’s reliance on narrow one-score victories and a lack of wins by more than one possession suggests that their 2025 performance may not reflect their true competitive standing against stronger opponents.

Finally, the New England Patriots are predicted to see their win total drop from 14 to approximately eight or 10. Their 2025 campaign was aided by the easiest schedule in the NFL by Pythagorean Expectation metrics, a statistical advantage that is now expected to reverse. With concerns regarding defensive depth and a lack of roster continuity from recent draft classes, the Patriots face a steeper climb in 2026.