Rams’ 13 personnel dominance masks league-wide inefficiency in 2026 draft trends
While the National Football League witnessed a surge in tight end selections following the Los Angeles Rams’ 2025 success, data indicates that replicating Sean McVay’s formation remains statistically elusive for other franchises.
The Los Angeles Rams achieved significant offensive success in the 2025 season by heavily utilising 13 personnel, a formation comprising one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver. This strategic shift was initially necessitated by an ankle injury to star receiver Puka Nacua, which forced head coach Sean McVay to adapt his playbook. The adjustment allowed quarterback Matthew Stafford to secure MVP honours and led the team to the NFC Championship game, where they fell short of the Super Bowl.
Following the 2026 NFL Draft, which featured a record number of tight ends selected in the early rounds, other NFL teams are considering adopting similar tight end-heavy strategies for the 2026 season. ESPN reports that eight tight ends were selected in Rounds 2 and 3, a frequency not seen since 2023. Specific teams targeting tight ends include the Rams, who selected Max Klare in the second round, the Jaguars, who chose Nate Boerkircher, and the Bears, who picked Sam Roush in the third round.
The Jaguars’ new head coach Liam Coen and general manager James Gladstone are former Rams assistants, suggesting a potential tactical alignment with Los Angeles’ recent offensive identity. However, data indicates that while the Rams averaged 0.22 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play out of 13 personnel, the rest of the league averaged minus-0.06 EPA per play in the same formation during 2025. Only the Bills (0.47 EPA) and Patriots (0.24 EPA) showed positive efficiency metrics with larger personnel groupings outside of the Rams.
The league shifted toward smaller, wider groupings over the previous decade, with 11 personnel becoming the standard. The Rams, however, had consistently utilised 11 personnel, often on over 90% of snaps in previous years. McVay’s pivot to 13 personnel was described as almost entirely out of character, yet it resulted in the Rams averaging nearly 5.0 yards per carry and more than 8.0 yards per dropback when Stafford attempted to pass.
Despite the trend, analysis reveals that other teams using similar groupings experienced negative offensive efficiency metrics. The Rams were the only team to achieve significant success with the formation, suggesting that the strategy may be more dependent on specific player execution and coaching nuance than a universal tactical solution. Other franchises attempting to emulate this approach face the challenge of overcoming historical inefficiencies associated with heavier personnel groupings.
