PopuList analysis reveals far-right support in Europe reaches 23%
With parties now in coalition governments across four nations and leading polls in several others, researchers attribute the surge to the normalisation of nativist ideologies and strategic messaging on immigration.
A comprehensive analysis by over 150 political scientists indicates that support for far-right parties in Europe has reached nearly a quarter of the electorate, marking a significant shift in the continent’s political landscape. The study, led by Matthijs Rooduijn for the PopuList survey, found that 23% of voters cast ballots for such parties in recent national elections, a figure that has risen nearly fivefold since 1995 when support stood at approximately 5%. This trend has accelerated sharply between 2023 and 2025, with researchers noting that the proportion has doubled from roughly 10% a decade ago.
The data highlights historic electoral gains in major European nations, particularly between 2023 and 2025. In France, the National Rally surged from 19% to 37%, becoming the largest single party in parliament, while Austria’s Freedom party rose from 16% to 29%. Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland doubled its vote share to 21% in the 2025 election, becoming the country’s second-largest party. In Britain, Reform UK increased its support from 2% in 2019 to 14% in 2024, and Portugal’s Chega rose from 7% to 18%.
Consequently, far-right parties have moved from the political fringe into the machinery of government. They are currently part of ruling coalitions in Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, and support a right-wing minority government in Sweden. Beyond those in power, these parties lead in opinion polls in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK. Despite recent setbacks for specific parties in the Netherlands and Hungary, the aggregate share of voters backing far-right ideologies has continued to climb.
Researchers attribute this structural shift to three primary factors: the increasing salience of immigration, the normalisation of far-right ideologies, and the parties’ effectiveness as communicators. Rooduijn noted that while voter attitudes on core themes have remained static, these issues have become more decisive in voting behaviour. Furthermore, the parties have become "normalised" through media coverage and the adoption of their ideas by mainstream rivals, while their professionalised "heroes versus villains" narratives have successfully stirred public emotion.
The PopuList now identifies 133 far-right parties in Europe, up from 112 in 2003, with total populist parties rising to 201. The survey defines far-right parties by their espousal of nativism and authoritarianism, a classification upheld by courts in France and Germany despite legal challenges from the parties themselves. Rooduijn warned that while these parties express citizen discontent, their ideas are often incompatible with liberal democracy’s core principles, posing potential risks to democratic norms when they gain power.