Pirates shift Skenes’ start to Wednesday amid velocity concerns and playoff hopes fading
Analysis suggests the matchup could mark the end of the road for Paul Skenes in 2026, with statistical trends showing a significant drop in performance since mid-season.
The Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to meet in a Major League Baseball contest on Wednesday, a game that has drawn scrutiny due to the condition of Pirates ace Paul Skenes. According to reporting from CBS Sports, there is a legitimate possibility that this appearance will serve as Skenes’ final start of the 2026 season, given his recent struggles and the team’s diminishing postseason prospects.
Pirates manager Don Kelly has moved Skenes’ start from Sunday to Wednesday to provide additional recovery time. The decision was not linked to injury, with Skenes confirming his health and supporting the move as a sensible step for his recovery. The 24-year-old right-hander has seen his performance dip significantly since mid-season, posting a 3-5 record with a 5.28 earned run average across 11 starts since June 9.
Statistical data indicates a notable decline in Skenes’ effectiveness, particularly regarding fastball velocity. His average fastball velocity for the season stands at 96.8 mph, a decrease from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024. In his most recent outing in Miami, Skenes threw just 65 pitches, averaging a career-low 95.7 mph on his fastball and recording a 12% whiff rate, the lowest single-game mark of his major league career.
The decline coincides with mechanical adjustments made around June 9, where Skenes altered his stride to be less crossfire. This change has correlated with improved performance by right-handed hitters against him; their batting average against Skenes rose from .193 to .301, while their slugging percentage increased from .307 to .470 since the adjustment. The Pirates have recorded a 3-8 record in Skenes’ last 11 starts.
The Tigers will be led by rookie Kevin McGonigle, who is currently the frontrunner for the American League Rookie of the Year award. McGonigle will face Skenes for the first time in their major league careers. Detroit’s starting pitcher, Jackson Jobe, is also returning from Tommy John surgery, having made two starts since his reinstatement from the injured list.
