Pirates’ playoff hopes fade as Skenes’ velocity dip deepens in loss to Marlins
With postseason odds dropping to a season-low 4.6 per cent, Pittsburgh’s rotation struggles and managerial strategy face scrutiny following a 2-0 defeat.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ pursuit of a postseason berth has effectively stalled, with FanGraphs reducing their chances to a season-low 4.6 per cent following a 2-0 defeat to the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park on Tuesday night. The loss marks the sixth defeat in seven games for Pittsburgh, leaving the club in last place in the National League Central, six games adrift of the third wild-card spot with 42 games remaining in the season.
Pitcher Paul Skenes was removed after five innings and 65 pitches, a move that has intensified scrutiny over his recent performance. Reports indicate a significant drop in Skenes’ fastball velocity, which averaged a career-low 95.9 mph on Tuesday, with his highest recorded speed reaching only 96.6 mph. This contrasts sharply with his previous 79 career starts, where he consistently threw at least four pitches at 97.0 mph or higher.
Manager Don Kelly and Skenes maintained that the early exit was strategic rather than injury-related. Kelly noted that players in August are rarely at 100 per cent physical capacity and insisted the decision was made to give the team the best chance to win. Skenes accepted the decision, stating he had no complaints about the process and acknowledging that the manager was straightforward with him.
The underlying metrics suggest Skenes is struggling to find his rhythm, posting a 5.00 ERA in his last 16 starts while averaging just 5.3 innings per game. While his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) of 3.29 suggests some bad luck, the visual evidence of diminished stuff and command has been difficult to ignore. Earlier in the season, the velocity dip was attributed to Skenes holding back to improve location, but the sustained decline has made that narrative increasingly difficult to sustain.
The Pirates’ difficulties extend beyond their ace. Since July 1, the starting rotation has posted a 5.40 ERA and averaged 4.7 innings per start, with other starters such as Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller also contributing to the team’s struggles. Combined with defensive inconsistencies and offensive stagnation, the Pirates have lost 14 of their last 19 games, leaving them with little margin for error as they attempt to salvage their season.
