PFF analyst flags Stafford for statistical regression in 2026

Pro Football Focus analyst Mark Chichester has identified Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford as a primary candidate for statistical regression in the 2026 NFL season. The assessment follows Stafford’s highly efficient 2025 campaign, where he recorded 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. PFF argues that Stafford’s low interception count was driven by significant positive variance in "interception luck," a metric that historical data suggests is unsustainable over consecutive seasons.

Stafford’s 2025 season saw him generate 21 turnover-worthy throws, yet only eight resulted in interceptions, with defenders dropping nine additional would-be picks. On 695 non-turnover-worthy attempts, Stafford threw just one interception, whereas league-average outcomes would project five or six. Altogether, Stafford finished with only nine interceptions on a passing profile that league-average variance would typically push closer to the 15- or 16-interception range.

Historical data indicates that such extreme luck is unsustainable, with Stafford’s net luck scores in 2024 (+7.3) and 2025 (+6.8) ranking among the highest in a 10-year dataset. Producing two consecutive seasons at the extreme top of the interception-luck leaderboard is already highly unusual. A third straight year would be virtually unprecedented based on the historical data, which offers little evidence that this type of variance is sustainable.

While the interception count is projected to rise towards league averages, Stafford’s conservative decision-making within the McVay offensive system may mitigate the severity of this regression. Stafford has only thrown more than eight interceptions in a regular season twice during his Rams career, specifically in his first and third seasons with the team. His complex understanding of the system allows for more conservative choices compared to his previous tenure with the Detroit Lions.

The Rams are expected to utilise 13 personnel heavily in 2026 following the re-signing of tight end Tyler Higbee and the drafting of Max Klare. During a five-game run in 2025 with key offensive weapons available, Stafford threw 18 touchdowns and zero interceptions, suggesting that the retention of these assets could help stabilise his performance metrics despite the expected statistical correction.