Oklahoma State’s Mestemaker Draws Betting Interest Despite Team Projections
Following his transfer from North Texas under head coach Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker has seen his 2026 Heisman Trophy odds halve, yet institutional forecasts remain cautious about Oklahoma State’s season outlook.
Oklahoma State University has appointed Eric Morris as head coach, a move that has brought quarterback Drew Mestemaker from North Texas to Stillwater. The transaction has triggered significant movement in the betting markets for the 2026 Heisman Trophy, with Mestemaker’s odds shortening from +10,000 to +5,000. According to CBS Sports, this represents the most significant shortening of any player nationally, creating a notable disparity between his longshot status and the volume of wagers placed on him.
BetMGM is identified as the sportsbook most exposed to Mestemaker winning the award. While he accounts for only 2.2 per cent of tickets and 1.9 per cent of handle for the trophy, the sheer drop in odds has heightened financial risk for the bookmaker. Mestemaker, a 20-year-old who began his career as a walk-on, was ranked the No. 4 overall player in the 2026 transfer portal. He follows Morris to Oklahoma State, having previously led North Texas to an American Conference title game appearance and an 11-win season.
Mestemaker’s individual statistics at North Texas were robust. In 2025, he threw for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns, leading the Football Bowl Subdivision in both categories. He also won the Burlsworth Trophy, awarded to the top player who began their collegiate career as a walk-on. Former North Texas quarterbacks coach Sean Brophy has joined Oklahoma State as offensive coordinator, reinforcing the coaching staff’s continuity from Morris’s previous tenure.
Despite the individual accolades and betting attention, Oklahoma State faces a challenging institutional outlook. The Cowboys finished the 2025 season with a 1-11 record, including a loss to FCS school UT Martin in their season opener. Projections for the 2026 season place their win total at 6.5, with only 3.5 projected Big 12 victories. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts an even lower total of 5.1 wins, the fewest in the conference.
The season begins on 5 September against Tulsa, where Oklahoma State is a 14.5-point favourite. However, the home opener on 12 September against Oregon is projected as a likely loss. While Mestemaker is viewed as a potential first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, with some mock drafts linking him to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, analysts remain skeptical of his Heisman chances given the team’s projected performance.
