Nuclear energy stocks: What $5,000 invested in Constellation Energy and Cameco could be worth in 10 years

A financial analysis from The Motley Fool projects the potential 10-year growth of a $5,000 investment in nuclear energy stocks Constellation Energy (CEG) and Cameco (CCJ). The forecast is based on U.S. electricity demand growth and the Trump Administration’s goal to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 gigawatts by 2050. For Constellation Energy, a base case scenario suggests the investment could grow to approximately $11,500 by 2036, driven by long-term power purchase agreements with major tech firms and utilities. For Cameco, a base case scenario estimates the investment could reach about $7,400 by 2036, assuming 12% annual earnings growth, while a conservative case suggests a decline to roughly $4,100 due to valuation compression.

U.S. electricity consumption is projected to reach 4,399 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. To support the administration’s capacity targets, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has proposed changes to make environmental reviews and reactor licensing more predictable. This regulatory environment underpins the investment thesis for both companies, though their business models present distinct risk profiles for investors.

Constellation Energy operates the largest nuclear network in the U.S., with generating capacity expanding to approximately 55 gigawatts following its acquisition of Calpine. The company has secured more than 5,650 megawatts through long-term clean energy agreements, including 20-year deals with Meta Platforms and Microsoft. These contracts provide revenue visibility that analysts believe supports a base case valuation of 18 times earnings, potentially lifting the share price to $580 by 2036.

The analysis notes that Constellation’s base earnings per share are expected to grow at an annualized rate of more than 20% from 2026 through 2029. However, the forecast relies on the company successfully integrating Calpine and managing acquisition debt. Additionally, the planned restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center introduces regulatory risk, as no fully closed U.S. nuclear plant has completed such a restart previously.

Cameco offers exposure to the uranium supply chain, operating high-grade mines in Canada and holding a 49% stake in Westinghouse. While the company reported a 48% year-over-year rise in adjusted EBITDA for its core uranium segment, it faces operational vulnerabilities. A recent disruption at the McClean Lake mill forced a temporary halt at the Cigar Lake mine, highlighting exposure to partner facility failures.

Investors face a wider range of outcomes with Cameco. In a conservative scenario, valuation compression could reduce the value of a $5,000 investment to $4,100 by 2036. The base case assumes 12% annual earnings growth, leading to a projected value of $7,400. A bullish scenario, requiring sustained 16% annual growth, could see the investment reach $12,600, though analysts view this as less probable for a commodity-linked business.

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends both Cameco and Constellation Energy, as well as Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Walmart. The analysis underscores that while nuclear energy faces tailwinds from policy and demand, execution risks and valuation multiples will dictate actual returns over the next decade.