NFL history offers little hope for McCarthy and Richardson’s reclamation
While J.J. McCarthy and Anthony Richardson face distinct statistical hurdles, historical precedents indicate that overcoming these deficits to secure a starting position is an exceptional outcome.
An analysis of NFL historical data indicates that while first-round quarterbacks who lose their initial starting roles often receive second chances, few achieve long-term success. The Minnesota Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy and the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson face distinct statistical hurdles; McCarthy must reduce negative plays to align with his elite big-time throw rate, whereas Richardson needs to significantly improve his historically poor accuracy to secure a starting position. Recent precedents show that only Sam Darnold and Mac Jones have produced top-16 EPA per dropback seasons in subsequent tenures after losing their franchise roles.
For McCarthy, the Vikings have reached a point where patience appears to be giving way to a search for a different solution. Heading into Year 3 with just 10 NFL starts, McCarthy has been replaced by Kyler Murray. Similarly, Richardson has been benched in his second season, with Daniel Jones entrenched as the starter and Richardson battling Riley Leonard for the backup job. Both players have arrived at a career crossroads where their original teams are no longer willing to wait for their physical gifts to translate into consistent play.
A review of recent first-round quarterbacks who lost their franchise roles by the end of their third season reveals a stark reality. Seven recent quarterbacks fit this mould, including Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Kenny Pickett. While five of these players eventually started another game, only Darnold and Mac Jones produced a top-16 season in EPA per dropback with at least 200 dropbacks in a subsequent tenure.
The successful reclamation projects typically did not become entirely different players but instead improved specific weaknesses that had held them back. Darnold increased his accuracy and big-time throw rate, while Jones improved his adjusted accuracy and reduced his turnover-worthy-play rate. These examples suggest that reclamation is possible but requires targeted improvement in areas such as ball security, accuracy, or pressure navigation.
McCarthy’s 2025 season featured a 96th-percentile big-time throw rate despite an eighth-percentile EPA per dropback (-0.15) and a 4.8% turnover-worthy-play rate. His challenge lies in eliminating the negative plays that overwhelm his high-end throws. Richardson’s profile is more concerning due to his adjusted accuracy of 60.2% in 2024, which ranked dead last among qualifying quarterbacks from 2015-25. Richardson must significantly improve his accuracy to secure a starting role, a task that has proven difficult even for elite talents like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
The burden of proof has shifted for both quarterbacks. While they will likely receive another opportunity to prove their worth, history suggests that getting another team to believe in them is the easier part. The harder challenge is providing that team with a reason to keep believing, as the window for development narrows significantly once a player is no longer the intended starter.
Only Darnold clearly remade himself into a franchise quarterback, and even his path took four seasons after leaving the Jets. For McCarthy and Richardson, the data indicates that while second chances are common, second careers are rare. Their ability to overcome their respective statistical deficits will determine whether they can join the small group of quarterbacks who have successfully rewritten their narratives.
