NFL Analyst Identifies Buccaneers as NFC South Favourites in 2026 Preseason Tier Breakdown
The *First Things First* co-host categorises the Houston Texans as “boom or bust” and dismisses six long-shot teams from playoff contention despite historical trends.
NFL analyst and *First Things First* co-host Nick Wright has released a comprehensive tier breakdown of league teams entering Week 1 of the 2026 preseason, identifying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as strong contenders in the NFC South. Wright attributes the Buccaneers’ elevated status primarily to the performance of quarterback Baker Mayfield, noting Mayfield’s ability to elevate his play when motivated.
Wright characterises the NFC South as the most unpredictable division in the league, yet he remains confident in Tampa Bay’s trajectory. He expressed a specific hope that Mayfield can maintain high-level performance into the postseason, stating, “I hope he gets hot in the playoffs.”
In contrast to the Buccaneers’ standing, Wright voiced active concern regarding the Washington Commanders and the San Francisco 49ers. He cited significant injury issues during training camp as a primary driver for his caution, particularly highlighting the impact of Laremy Tunsil’s absence for Washington. Wright noted that both organisations are already among the oldest in the league, compounding the risks associated with their current injury lists.
The Houston Texans were described as a “boom or bust” team, with their Super Bowl potential hinging on the performance of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offensive production surrounding him. Wright pointed to the strength of the Texans’ defence, led by DeMeco Ryans, as a stabilising factor, but emphasised that the team’s ultimate ceiling depends on whether Stroud can meet offensive expectations.
Wright also categorised the New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Minnesota Vikings as potentially middling teams. He described these franchises as “hit or miss,” suggesting they could finish with eight or nine wins but expressing uncertainty about their ability to sustain that level of success.
Regarding teams with 100-to-1 playoff odds, Wright identified the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. While acknowledging that historical data suggests one of these long-shot teams typically makes the playoffs, he refused to predict which one, stating he did not believe any of them have a genuine chance this season.
The source text concludes with an incomplete analysis of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, leaving their specific tier classification unresolved in the provided report.
