NBA proposes structural overhaul of draft lottery to curb tanking

The National Basketball Association has disclosed a comprehensive reform proposal to its 30 general managers designed to dismantle the incentives driving tanking behaviour. Dubbed the "3-2-1 lottery" system, the framework seeks to fundamentally alter the draft mechanics by expanding eligibility to 16 teams and introducing a relegation zone that penalises the bottom three franchises with fewer lottery balls. The initiative represents a significant shift from the current model, which has historically limited the drawing to the bottom four teams, and aims to prioritise competitive balance over the accumulation of draft capital through intentional losing.

Under the new structure, the distribution of lottery balls is reconfigured to discourage teams from sacrificing wins. Teams ranked fourth through 10th, which do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but remain outside the relegation zone, would receive three lottery balls each. Conversely, the bottom three teams, defined as spots 11 through 13, would be assigned only two balls. Crucially, this relegation zone imposes a hard floor on the No. 12 pick, meaning these teams cannot fall lower than 12th in the draft order regardless of their performance. Additionally, the losers of the seventh and eighth play-in games would receive a single lottery ball, bringing the total number of participants in the drawing to 16.

To further mitigate the risk of sustained tanking, the proposal introduces strict safeguards regarding consecutive high selections. No team would be permitted to win the top pick in consecutive years, nor could any franchise secure three consecutive top-five picks. These restrictions are intended to prevent long-term manipulation of the draft order and ensure that a single season of poor performance does not guarantee a decade of rebuilding advantages. Furthermore, the league would gain expanded disciplinary authority to reduce odds or modify draft positions for teams that engage in tanking, moving beyond the passive nature of the current system.

The reform also strips teams of the ability to protect draft picks in the 12 to 15 slots, a move that removes a layer of certainty often used to manage roster construction around the draft. This change aligns with the broader goal of increasing uncertainty and encouraging winning throughout the regular season, particularly in the second half when the relegation zone becomes a tangible threat. By flattening the odds for the majority of lottery-eligible teams and removing the safety net of pick protection, the league aims to make the draft a more dynamic and meritocratic process.

The proposal includes a sunset clause that would see the new system expire after the 2029 draft, coinciding with the conclusion of the current collective bargaining agreement. This temporary measure allows the board of governors to evaluate the system's impact before deciding whether to extend it or transition to a new framework. The timeline places a final vote by league owners on 28 May 2026, with implementation scheduled to commence at the 2027 draft.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has identified fixing tanking as his top priority, citing the loaded 2026 draft class and existing incentives that encourage teams to lose. Following meetings with the board of governors and general managers, Silver emphasised that the decision carries significant business, basketball, and integrity implications for the league. The proposal reflects a concerted effort to address these structural issues, with high-ranking officials indicating that the framework has garnered majority support from the teams involved.