NASCAR model projects upset at North Wilkesboro as Blaney fades in 2026 Window World 450 odds
Mike McClure’s predictive model suggests Ryan Blaney will finish outside the top five, while highlighting Ty Gibbs as a strong value play for the penultimate round of the In-Season Challenge.
The NASCAR Cup Series prepares for its first points race at North Wilkesboro Speedway in three decades this Sunday, with the green flag scheduled to drop at 7 p.m. ET. The event serves as the penultimate round of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge, drawing significant attention to the betting markets where Ryan Blaney is currently listed as the favourite at +480 odds. He narrowly edges out Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, who are both priced at +500.
Despite Blaney’s status as the betting favourite and last week’s winner in Atlanta, advanced modelling by professional DFS player Mike McClure suggests fading the driver. McClure’s simulation model, which has correctly identified 30 winners since 2021, projects Blaney to finish outside the top five. The analysis cites a winless streak on short tracks, noting Blaney has failed to secure victory in his last eight starts on such circuits.
The model also points to Blaney’s recent performance at the specific venue as a cautionary indicator. During the 2025 All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, Blaney finished 16th out of 23 drivers. Given the short odds attached to his name, McClure’s data suggests he is one to avoid for Sunday’s race.
In contrast, the model highlights Ty Gibbs at +1800 as a strong contender. Gibbs is enjoying a career-best season, sitting fourth in the standings after never placing better than 15th in previous years, and enters the weekend with three straight top-10 finishes. His historical success at North Wilkesboro is also noted, having won the pole at the All-Star Open twice and finishing as runner-up in the All-Star Race.
McClure is also backing two other longshots with odds of at least +1500, though their identities have not been disclosed in the source material. The model directs users to SportsLine for the full projected leaderboard. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott remains the favourite to win the In-Season Challenge standings at +1500 odds, while Kyle Larson is listed at +900 as he seeks his first win in over a year. The track previously hosted All-Star races from 2023 to 2025, with Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Christopher Bell securing wins in those events.
