Moscow escalates trade sanctions on Armenia ahead of pivotal June election

Russia has significantly intensified economic pressure on Armenia in the run-up to the parliamentary election scheduled for 7 June, deploying a range of trade restrictions and diplomatic threats. Moscow has warned that it may suspend Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and raise energy costs if the country proceeds with its bid to join the European Union. The measures target key sectors of the Armenian economy, including agriculture and energy, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government pursues closer alignment with Brussels and Washington.

The escalation follows a series of regulatory actions initiated by Russian authorities over the past month. On 29 May, the Eurasian Economic Union announced it would consider suspending Armenia for seeking EU membership, urging the country to hold a referendum on its geopolitical direction. A suspension would likely trigger immediate economic shocks, given that Russia accounted for approximately 35 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade in 2025, compared to roughly 11 percent for the EU.

Energy supplies remain a primary lever of influence. Armenia sourced 82 percent of its gas from Russia in 2025. On 1 April, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the disparity in pricing, noting that Armenia paid $177.5 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas, a fraction of the potential European market price of over $600. On 27 May, Russia’s Foreign Ministry explicitly warned that it could suspend or terminate the supply of cheap oil, gas, and rough diamonds if Yerevan continued its pursuit of EU accession.

Trade barriers have been systematically expanded under the guise of safety and compliance. Russia’s agricultural watchdog imposed temporary restrictions on fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, leafy greens, and strawberries on 30 May. These were followed on 2 June by bans on cherries, apricots, plums, peaches, nectarines, and grapes. By 3 June, the restrictions had widened to include apples, pears, eggplants, potatoes, and certain dried fruits.

Additional measures have targeted specific industries. On 2 June, Russia required Armenia to suspend certification for all but two fish exporters due to alleged non-compliance with facility inspections. Earlier in the month, sales of wine and brandy from three Armenian companies were suspended on 23 May over claims of substandard quality, while temporary restrictions on flower products were imposed on 22 May. The import of some Jermuk mineral water was also suspended on 28 April following labelling irregularities.

The election pits Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party against a coalition of opposition voices, many of whom are pro-Russian. Despite being distracted by its war in Ukraine, Russia appears determined to keep Armenia within its sphere of influence, utilising these economic tools to counter the government’s stated intention to pivot westwards.