Model simulations point to Sam Burns as value play for 2026 Tour Championship

The 2026 Tour Championship, which serves as the conclusion to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, is scheduled to take place on Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The event carries a total purse of $40 million, with the winner receiving a first-place prize of $10 million. A key structural change for this year’s tournament is the elimination of staggered scoring starts, meaning all 30 players in the field will begin on equal footing.

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favourite at +310, according to odds provided by FanDuel. He is followed by Rory McIlroy at +950. Other notable names on the odds board include Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay, all priced at +1800, while defending champion Tommy Fleetwood sits at +2200.

SportsLine, a service associated with CBS Sports, released predictions based on a proprietary computer model developed by DFS pro Mike McClure. The model simulated the 2026 Tour Championship 10,000 times to generate its forecasts. This simulation engine has a track record of predicting 17 major championships, including the 2026 Masters, which marked its fifth consecutive correct prediction for that event.

One of the model’s primary recommendations is to fade Xander Schauffele, who is priced at +1200. Despite being a regular in the top 5 at East Lake, Schauffele has not won the event since 2017. The model notes that he has no wins this season and only three top-5 finishes, including a T26 result at the BMW Championship last week.

Conversely, the model identifies Sam Burns as a strong value bet at +1800. Burns is viewed as a strong win contender and a value top-5 selection. Although he finished T28 last week, he has recorded top-5 finishes at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the Open Championship, and the U.S. Open this season. The model also indicates a target for a longshot with odds higher than +3000 to make a strong run up the leaderboard, though the specific player was not named in the release.