Michigan State football projected to miss 2026 bowl eligibility amid rebuild hopes
Following a 4-8 campaign under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald, the Spartans face continued scrutiny over their prolonged absence from the postseason.
National writer Brett McMurphy of On3 has released his post-spring bowl projections for the 2026 season, forecasting that Michigan State football will fail to reach the six wins required for bowl eligibility. This prediction suggests the Spartans will extend their current drought, a period that has seen the program miss the postseason for four consecutive years.
The forecast arrives as the university attempts to revitalise the program following a difficult 2025 season in which the team finished with a 4-8 record. Despite a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and roster under the new administration led by head coach Pat Fitzgerald, McMurphy does not believe these structural changes will be sufficient to secure a spot in the bowl season immediately.
McMurphy asserts that Michigan State currently holds the longest active bowl drought in the Big Ten, with the Spartans last participating in a postseason game in 2021. That appearance came after an 11-2 campaign where the team defeated Pitt in the Peach Bowl, a stark contrast to the struggles of the intervening years.
The national writer's assessment highlights the low expectations surrounding the program on the national level. While the appointment of Fitzgerald and the subsequent roster rebuild were intended to signal a turning point, McMurphy maintains that the Spartans are unlikely to overcome the momentum of their recent struggles to achieve the necessary win total.
In his broader analysis of the 2026 landscape, McMurphy noted several shifts in the conference schedule, including the addition of new bowl games such as the Poinsettia Bowl and the Puerto Rico Bowl. However, these additions do not appear to alter his specific outlook regarding the Spartans' chances of qualifying.
The prediction remains an opinion piece based on pre-season analysis rather than confirmed outcomes. As the 2026 season approaches, the accuracy of this forecast will depend on whether the new coaching staff can translate the roster overhaul into tangible on-field results.
