McClure model favours Hamlin over defending champion Byron for Iowa Corn 350
As NASCAR approaches the postseason cut-off, Mike McClure’s data-driven analysis suggests Denny Hamlin holds the statistical edge, while advising against backing the 2025 race winner.
The 2026 Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway is set to serve as a decisive juncture in the NASCAR Cup Series calendar, with one of the final four regular-season events scheduled for Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The race carries significant weight for drivers navigating the postseason cut line, including Austin Cindric, Ryan Preece, and Erik Jones, as the field prepares for the commencement of the playoffs on 6 September.
Sports analyst Mike McClure has released betting predictions for the event, utilising a predictive model that simulates NASCAR action 10,000 times to determine probable outcomes. McClure, a professional daily fantasy sports player with over $2 million in career winnings, has identified Denny Hamlin as the primary favourite. Through FanDuel Sportsbook, Hamlin is listed at +470 odds, positioning him ahead of Ryan Blaney at +500 and Christopher Bell at +550.
The model’s assessment diverges sharply from the standing of defending race winner William Byron. Despite Byron securing a win and a runner-up finish in two previous events at Iowa Speedway, McClure’s analysis advises against backing him at +900 odds. The data highlights Byron’s winless status in 2026 and a recent slump, noting he has finished 12th or worse in five of his past six races. The simulation suggests Byron is unlikely to finish within the top 10, citing a lack of recent competitive form.
Conversely, the model identifies Kyle Larson as a strong top-two contender at +900 odds. Larson is recognised for his historical strength on short tracks and is currently riding a run of four straight top-5 finishes. Although his 2024 challenge at Iowa ended in an accident after leading 80 laps, the data points to his current consistency as a key factor in his elevated status for this weekend’s event.
McClure’s model has reportedly identified 30 winners since 2021, including Denny Hamlin’s back-to-back victories at Michigan and Pocono in June. In addition to the primary favourites, the analysis points to an unnamed longshot at nearly +2000 odds as a potential top-of-the-leaderboard contender. The race, powered by ethanol, remains a critical test of endurance and strategy as the series transitions into the high-stakes playoff environment.
