Market shift: Robinson, Gibbs projected for record-breaking deals after Achane extension

The Miami Dolphins’ decision to secure running back De’Von Achane with a four-year, $64 million contract extension has established a new financial benchmark for the position, triggering projections for significant deals for fellow 2023 draft class stars Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. According to reporting by CBS Sports, the Dolphins’ move signals a strategic commitment to retaining core talent amid a broader roster rebuild that saw the trade of high-profile players such as Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Achane’s extension underscores the value placed on explosive playmaking in the modern NFL. The 24-year-old recorded 1,838 yards from scrimmage last season, ranking sixth in the league, while leading the NFL in both yards per carry (5.7) and explosive rush rate (13.4%). His ability to generate yards after contact and serve as a primary receiving threat has positioned him as a cornerstone of Miami’s offensive strategy, with General Manager Jon-Eric Sullivan explicitly confirming Achane was not available for trade.

This market shift places immediate pressure on the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions to address the contract situations of Robinson and Gibbs, respectively. Both players are 24 years old and have demonstrated elite efficiency in avoiding tackles, with Robinson leading the NFL with 202 avoided tackles over the past two seasons and Gibbs ranking second with 162. ESPN’s Adam Schefter indicated that an extension for Robinson is expected this offseason, noting that similar record-setting deals have already been secured by other 2023 first-round picks such as Will Anderson Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Robinson is projected to potentially secure a three-year, $75 million contract with approximately $45 million in guaranteed money, a deal that would reset market records for the running back position. The proposed structure aligns with his existing contract timeline through 2027, offering Atlanta’s new front office a mechanism to lock in a young superstar while establishing a long-term offensive identity. The average annual value of such a deal would match that of top-tier wide receivers, reflecting Robinson’s multifaceted role in the Falcons’ attack.

Gibbs’ situation presents a more complex financial landscape for the Detroit Lions, who are navigating tight salary cap constraints. ESPN’s Eric Woodyard highlighted that Detroit’s decision to decline the fifth-year option for linebacker Jack Campbell illustrates the financial pressures facing the franchise. With multiple 2023 draft class members, including Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch, requiring future extensions, the Lions must carefully balance immediate investments in Gibbs against broader cap management strategies.

While Robinson’s extension appears imminent, Gibbs’ timeline remains uncertain due to Detroit’s need to restructure future money and manage competing priorities. The Lions have a history of rewarding homegrown talent, but the timing of Gibbs’ deal may be influenced by the team’s ability to absorb significant financial commitments. As the NFL continues to prioritise young, explosive playmakers, the outcomes of these negotiations will likely set the standard for running back valuations in the coming years.