Latvia exit polls point to coalition reset after United List lead
Public media projections put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ party first, while a coalition partner fell below the threshold for parliamentary representation.
Exit polls published by Latvian public media LSM put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centre-right United List on 35.6 per cent in the parliamentary election, suggesting a strong lead. The projections are provisional; official preliminary results were expected on Sunday.
The Union of Greens and Farmers, a coalition partner, was projected on 3.7 per cent, below the five per cent threshold for parliamentary representation. Results for other coalition parties also point to a likely change in government arrangements, with Kulbergs expected to seek a new ruling coalition.
Exit polls placed Latvia First on 11.3 per cent, the Progressives on 11.1 per cent and Sovereign Power on 10.8 per cent. The source report said support for populist parties may be undercounted because some voters are reluctant to disclose their preferences.
Security and support for Ukraine featured prominently in the campaign, alongside living costs, wages, healthcare and population decline. Latvia, an EU and NATO member on both blocs’ eastern flank, views Russia as its principal security threat and has increased defence spending since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Coalition negotiations are expected to follow the official preliminary results. The final parliamentary balance and the shape of any new coalition remain uncertain.
