Labour overtakes Reform UK in first voter poll shift since March 2025

Labour has overtaken Reform UK in a weekly voter intention poll for the first time since March 2025, rising four points to 28 per cent while Reform UK fell to 24 per cent. The shift follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first week in office, where his focus on the cost of living and policy announcements, including energy bill tax cuts and bus fare caps, has generated positive momentum. Conversely, Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage have faced negative headlines regarding undeclared donations, an aide with a fraud conviction, and a byelection controversy. The poll, conducted by More in Common, also shows the Greens dropping to 8 per cent, the Conservatives unchanged at 22 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats rising to 12 per cent.

Luke Tryl, the UK director at More in Common, stated that momentum is on the prime minister’s side, noting Labour’s highest vote share since the early months of the government in 2024. Tryl observed that with both Reform and the Green party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, the early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters Labour has lost on both the left and right. Burnham responded to the polling by stating he would not get carried away but expressed pleasure at having connected with people, adding that he aims to restore hope and address issues such as youth unemployment, social care, and housing.

Burnham, who returned to the House of Commons on 18 June after winning the Makerfield byelection, was appointed prime minister a week ago. His first week included high-profile policy announcements such as a cap on bus fares and a cut to business rates for pubs and clubs. While not without criticism, these measures have broadly landed well, and Burnham emerged from his first major broadcast interview over the weekend unscathed. The prime minister, who previously served as mayor of Greater Manchester, dominated UK media in the last week with a flurry of policy announcements and media appearances.

In contrast, Farage has been unable to shake off sleaze allegations that have dogged him since the Guardian revealed in April that he was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 general election. The parliamentary standards watchdog launched an investigation in May into whether the £5m fell within rules requiring MPs to declare any potentially relevant gifts or donations received in the 12 months before entering parliament. Farage denies any breach of parliamentary rules.

It also emerged that George Cottrell, a longtime aide to Farage and a convicted fraudster, provided funding for Farage’s operation, including for staffing, security and housing. Payments to Reform revealed by the Guardian are now being investigated by the Metropolitan police. The inquiry is scrutinising payments made to the party via a company controlled by its deputy leader, Richard Tice. Scotland Yard is looking at two donations of £250,000 made to the party by Britain Means Business in the weeks before the 2024 general election. Reform UK have denied any wrongdoing in relation to the allegations.

Farage resigned his seat as an MP in Clacton this month to trigger a byelection, which he said would be a contest between the people and the establishment. Critics said it was an attempt to distract from the allegations concerning his and the party’s finances and delay the investigation by the standards watchdog. The byelection has become the butt of many jokes after none of the other major political parties fielded a candidate, leaving Farage to contest the seat with a cast of comedy characters, including Count Binface.