Labour members express deep scepticism over Starmer's ability to defeat Reform UK

A new poll conducted by the thinktank Compass indicates that a majority of Labour Party members no longer believe Prime Minister Keir Starmer can reverse the party's fortunes following recent electoral setbacks. The survey, which interviewed more than 1,000 members across England, Scotland and Wales, found that 51 per cent of respondents do not think Starmer is capable of turning around the polls to secure a victory against Reform UK in the next general election.

This sentiment has intensified significantly since October, when only 28 per cent of members suggested the Prime Minister should resign if results were poor. Currently, 45 per cent of the membership believe Starmer should step down. The data suggests a sharp rise in dissatisfaction, with 36 per cent of members having actively considered cancelling their membership, while nearly half of those surveyed hold the Prime Minister jointly responsible for the party's dire results alongside the wider national government.

In terms of leadership succession, Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is the clear first preference for 42 per cent of members. He currently enjoys a net favourability rating of 72 per cent among the party base, suggesting he would be a likely winner in a leadership contest if permitted to stand. However, his path to the top is currently obstructed by the Labour National Executive Committee (NEC), which has blocked him from standing for parliament.

Supporters of Burnham argue that the NEC's decision, which cites the need to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty, will only change if Starmer agrees to a timetable for his departure. At least ten MPs, including former transport secretary Louise Haigh and several members elected in 2024, have called for such a timetable to allow the Mayor to seek a parliamentary seat. The NEC has indicated that the position will not change unless Starmer's mind is changed, a move supporters deem highly unlikely.

The polling comes amid a backdrop of significant electoral losses for Labour, including the SNP achieving a historic victory in Scotland and Plaid Cymru unseating the Labour First Minister in Wales. In London, the Greens took control of several councils, highlighting growing progressive disillusionment within the party's traditional heartlands. These results provided the context for the survey, which was commissioned by Compass, an organisation affiliated with Mainstream, a Labour caucus that is a prime backer of a potential Burnham leadership bid.

Lena Swedlow, deputy director of Compass, noted that voters have already made their displeasure with Starmer's leadership clear, and party members are now echoing that sentiment. She emphasised that in the face of a serious economic situation, it is essential for the country and the party to have a leader they can trust, with a clear desire for change in both the politics and personnel of the government.