Knicks host 76ers in Eastern Semifinals opener as betting models favour New York to cover

The New York Knicks will host the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Eastern Semifinals on Monday at Madison Square Garden. New York, who defeated Atlanta in six games to reach the East semifinals for the fourth consecutive year, are now listed as 7.5-point favourites. This represents a significant shift from their opening odds of 4.5 points, reflecting the market's assessment of the matchup ahead of the 8 p.m. ET tip-off.

Philadelphia enter the contest having rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat Boston and secure their first series win since 2023. While the Sixers hold a 6-4 series edge in their 11th playoff meeting, they face a New York side that won the most recent encounter in 2024. Joel Embiid is probable to play for Philadelphia, whereas Jeremy Sochan remains questionable for the Knicks, adding an element of uncertainty to the starting lineups.

The over/under for total points is set at 213.5. Historical data suggests a higher scoring affair, with regular-season meetings between the franchises averaging 230 points. All four previous regular-season meetings exceeded 221 points, and recent playoff games between the two have also cleared the total. Both teams rank in the top six for fewest turnovers per game, indicating high-efficiency offenses where possessions are likely to end in points rather than lost balls.

A betting projection model, the SportsLine Projection Model, has simulated 10,000 game scenarios to assess the likely outcome. The model projects the Over to hit in 56% of simulations and the Knicks to cover the spread in nearly 60% of scenarios. The tool, which claims to have generated over $10,000 in betting profit for users over the past eight-plus seasons, entered the second full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a 25-9 roll for its top-rated spread picks.

DraftKings has launched a promotional campaign offering new users a $100 bonus bet upon a $5 wager, timed to coincide with the start of the 2026 NBA second round. The campaign highlights the Knicks vs 76ers matchup as one of the key contests for Monday evening. The promotion notes that the SportsLine experts underpinning the offer recommend backing the Knicks as 7.5-point favourites based on the simulation data.

While the Knicks are the favourites, the Sixers have demonstrated resilience by overcoming a significant deficit against Boston. The model also suggests that four players, two from each team, are projected to surpass 20 points. With both squads displaying efficient ball handling and scoring trends, the game remains poised to be a competitive test of offensive execution in the second round.