Kentucky Derby 2026: Expert Jody Demling challenges market favourite Renegade with Further Ado pick
While betting markets favour Renegade at 4-1 for Saturday's race, Jody Demling points to a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for Further Ado and advises bettors to consider longshots like The Puma for exotic wagers.
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville on Saturday, 2 May. Ahead of the event, SportsLine expert Jody Demling has released his predictions, identifying Further Ado as the strongest contender for the title. This assessment is based on a dominant 106 Beyer Speed Figure recorded by the horse at the Blue Grass Stakes, a metric that dwarfs the rest of the 20-horse field.
Despite these performance indicators, current betting odds place Renegade as the 4-1 favourite. Demling has downgraded his confidence in the Arkansas Derby winner, stating he does not expect the colt to finish in the top 10. This divergence between market sentiment and expert analysis highlights the volatility often seen in horse racing markets, where odds fluctuate between 4-1 and 6-1 for different contenders.
Demling notes that historical data suggests a high Beyer Speed Figure in prep races does not always guarantee a win in the Derby. The last five Kentucky Derby champions all recorded modest speed figures between 84 and 95 in the race leading up to the first leg of the Triple Crown, and none of them had won that specific race. Consequently, the expert advises bettors to look beyond raw speed metrics when constructing their tickets.
Given this context, Demling recommends that bettors consider longshots such as The Puma, currently priced at 10-1, for exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. The Puma took second behind Commandment at the Florida Derby, a result that aligns with the expert's strategy of finding value in horses that may not be the outright favourites but possess proven form.
Demling, a fixture in the horse racing world who has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years, is sharing his specific selections via SportsLine. His analysis includes detailed combinations for win, place, and show positions, as well as specific recommendations for exotic bets designed to cover all bases for the upcoming race.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby represents a significant test for handicappers who must weigh statistical dominance against historical precedents. While the market heavily favours Renegade, Demling's structured approach suggests that the true edge may lie with Further Ado or the longshot play of The Puma, urging punters to scrutinise the underlying data rather than relying solely on current odds.
