Kashmir elections proceed amid boycott calls and security delays

The first phase of local elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir is scheduled to commence on Monday, July 27, proceeding despite a boycott campaign led by the recently outlawed Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC). The regional government has divided the voting process into three phases to manage security concerns, with the initial round taking place in Mirpur. Voting in the protest-hit Poonch division has been postponed until August 10, while elections in the regional capital, Muzaffarabad, have been delayed until August 2.

The elections are taking place against a backdrop of weeks of deadly unrest. Since June, protests over 12 assembly seats reserved for people displaced from India-administered Kashmir have left approximately 30 people dead, according to local estimates cited by Reuters. The JAAC, a grassroots alliance of civil society groups, argues that only current residents should be eligible to contest regional elections. The group’s demands escalated after the Supreme Court of Pakistan-administered Kashmir ruled that the refugee seats are constitutionally protected and cannot be abolished without a constitutional amendment.

In response to the growing unrest, the regional government banned the JAAC in June under anti-terrorism laws, citing threats to public order. Authorities have detained dozens of the group’s supporters. Despite the ban and the arrests, the JAAC continues to stage a sit-in in Rawalakot, near the Line of Control with India. The group has also campaigned for broader economic and governance reforms, uniting citizens across party lines around issues that analysts suggest have disrupted the status quo politics in the region.

Political stakeholders remain divided on the impact of the vote. Shazia Marri, central information secretary of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which currently rules the region, described the election as a major opportunity for residents to choose their representatives and address their issues. Conversely, JAAC leaders argue that elections alone cannot resolve the grievances that brought thousands onto the streets, with one official telling Deutsche Welle that the movement requires rights rather than political slogans.

Experts caution that the elections may not restore public confidence or address the underlying political grievances. Imran Khan, a geopolitical expert, stated that the protest movement is likely to continue post-elections, noting that supporters no longer fully trust political institutions. Analysts suggest the next government will face significant pressure from both the Pakistani establishment, which controls the region through an administrative and security framework, and the street sentiment favouring the JAAC.