Jeff Hochman releases 2026 Kentucky Derby selections ahead of Saturday's Run for the Roses
With the 152nd running of the event set for May 2 at Churchill Downs, SportsLine's Jeff Hochman has outlined his projected leaderboard, highlighting a potential upset from The Puma.
Jeff Hochman, a prominent sports handicapper with a reported 65.7 per cent win rate, has released his expert predictions for the 2026 Kentucky Derby ahead of the race scheduled for Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The analysis comes as the 152nd running of the event approaches, with gates set to open at 6:57 p.m. ET. The field consists of 20 horses, and the winner will aim to become the first Triple Crown winner since 2018.
Hochman has identified Renegade as his top pick, citing its recent Arkansas Derby victory and current 4-1 odds. While Renegade is the favourite after securing that win, Hochman noted that other contenders such as Further Ado, Commandment and Chief Wallabee will be hoping for a slip-up early, particularly given Renegade's draw on the inside rail.
Significant caution was expressed regarding Commandment, who is currently listed at 6-1 odds. Hochman highlighted concerns about the horse's recent slowdowns at the end of the course, noting this is a specific problem given the Kentucky Derby is longer than the Florida Derby where Commandment competed. The handicapper pointed out that despite winning the Florida Derby, Commandment's race time was slow compared to recent winners.
The jockey situation for Commandment adds further uncertainty to the outlook. Hochman noted that jockey Luis Saez has made 12 starts in the Kentucky Derby but has never won or finished in the top two. Hochman described the horse's peak performance in the Fountain of Youth as a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, which dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby, revealing difficulty in separating from rivals when it counts.
In contrast to the concerns surrounding Commandment, Hochman highlighted The Puma as a dangerous contender at 10-1 odds. The horse comes into the 2026 Kentucky Derby off a close loss in the Florida Derby but is supported by strong connections, including jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado. Delgado and Castellano are re-united after winning the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage, with Castellano also winning the 2023 Belmont Stakes atop a different horse.
Hochman described The Puma as having shown grit in every race and possessing improving speed figures in every start. The handicapper noted the horse earned a significantly faster Thoro-graph number than the winner in the Florida Derby thanks to a wide trip, with specific splits in the final three-eights of a mile and final eighth suggesting the horse should serve well over the longer distance.
Hochman's historical record includes cashing 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races, with notable selections including Big Brown in 2008, Mo Donegal in the 2022 Belmont Stakes, National Treasure in the 2023 Preakness, and Straight No Chaser in the 2024 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. He also delivered exceptional results during the summer 2025 racing season at Saratoga and Del Mar.
