ISW analysis suggests Ukraine reversed Russian territorial losses in April
Kyiv intensifies long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure while casualty figures indicate a rate of attrition exceeding recruitment capacity
The Institute for the Study of War has released an assessment indicating that Ukraine may have recaptured more territory than it lost during April. The Washington-based think tank reports that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres, a shift that contrasts sharply with Moscow's assertion of continuous progress in the Donetsk region. Analysts note that while Russian assaults in the fortress belt of eastern Ukraine appeared to increase in intensity, the actual control of ground remains contested.
According to the ISW, Moscow is employing infiltration tactics to manufacture a perception of success for cognitive warfare efforts. The analysis specifies that Russian forces do not maintain control over these infiltration zones, which are often occupied by Ukrainian soldiers. This tactical deception has obscured the reality that the rate of Russian advance has slowed by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months, dropping from an average of 9.76 square kilometres per day in early 2025 to just 2.9 square kilometres in the first quarter of 2026.
On the casualty front, Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Russia suffered 35,203 soldiers eliminated or seriously wounded in April. Fedorov argues this figure represents a rate of attrition that Russia's recruitment machinery cannot replenish, marking the fifth consecutive month of such a deficit. Intelligence obtained by Kyiv suggests that 62 per cent of these casualties were fatalities, a lethality rate significantly higher than previously assumed by Ukrainian or Western analysts.
Simultaneously, Kyiv has escalated its offensive operations deep inside Russian territory to disrupt revenue streams and supply lines. Defence Minister Fedorov confirmed that the number of mid-range strikes exceeding 20km doubled in April compared to the previous month. These operations have targeted critical infrastructure, including the Tuapse and Perm refineries, as well as a manufacturer of navigation modules in Cheboksary and Su-57 fighter jets at the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk.
Conflicting reports have emerged regarding the financial impact of these strikes on the Russian economy. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims that sanctions and direct hits have deprived the aggressor state of at least $7bn in oil revenue since the start of the year. Conversely, the Russian Ministry of Finance stated that mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12bn in April, attributing the increase to soaring global oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East.
Diplomatic relations between Kyiv and select European Union members show signs of thawing, though significant hurdles remain. Relations with Slovakia have improved following an invitation for Prime Minister Robert Fico to visit Kyiv, whereas Hungary's veto on Ukraine's accession to the bloc persists. Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar has indicated that a referendum is required before lifting the veto, despite recent diplomatic overtures and the return of seized assets to Ukraine.
