Israel faces fragile reality of Trump’s Iran deal

Dalia Dassa Kaye has warned that the peace agreement between Israel and Iran, brokered by US President Donald Trump, is inherently unstable and risks collapsing even without deliberate attempts to sabotage it. Writing for The Economist, Kaye suggests that the diplomatic framework lacks the resilience to withstand the underlying geopolitical and economic pressures currently shaping the region.

The analysis comes amidst heightened military tensions following Trump’s accusation that Iran shot down a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. The US president has vowed retaliation for the incident, which marks a sharp escalation in hostilities occurring shortly after indications that negotiations to end Middle East wars were underway.

Compounding the diplomatic fragility is the domestic situation within Iran, where residents are grappling with hyperinflation and military uncertainty. These internal economic challenges create a volatile environment that may undermine the stability of the peace deal, regardless of external diplomatic efforts to maintain it.

The geopolitical landscape has also shifted significantly with a recent Beijing summit, marking the first visit by an American president to China since 2017. Attendees including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang participated in discussions covering trade, artificial intelligence, and security in the Strait of Hormuz, adding another layer of complexity to the regional security architecture.

Kaye’s assessment implies that Israel must prepare for a volatile period as it navigates the terms of the Trump-brokered deal. The combination of recent military confrontations, domestic economic distress in Iran, and broader great power dynamics suggests that the peace may veer off track due to structural instabilities rather than overt political interference.