IPL 2026 playoff landscape: RCB, GT and SRH secure spots as RR lead chase for final places
Rajasthan Royals hold the strongest position among remaining contenders with a 68.8% probability, while Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians are officially out of contention.
With six league-stage matches remaining in the 2026 Indian Premier League, the playoff qualification picture has crystallised for the top tier of the competition. Royal Challengers Bangalore, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad have mathematically secured their places in the postseason, while Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians have been eliminated from contention.
Royal Challengers Bangalore are guaranteed to qualify, with projections indicating they will finish at least tied for first place on points. Their worst-case scenario involves a three-way tie for the top spot alongside Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad. Meanwhile, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Gujarat Titans each hold a 75 per cent probability of finishing at least tied for second place.
Rajasthan Royals currently hold the strongest position among the remaining contenders, with a 68.8 per cent probability of reaching the top four. This standing was reinforced by recent results, including a victory over Punjab Kings in Ahmedabad. The Royals also face a 12.5 per cent chance of a three-way tie for second spot with Sunrisers Hyderabad and Gujarat Titans.
The race for the final two playoff positions remains tightly contested among Punjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders, Delhi Capitals, and Chennai Super Kings. Punjab Kings can at best finish as sole fourth-placed team, a scenario with an 18.8 per cent probability, or tie for fourth with Kolkata Knight Riders, which carries a 6.3 per cent chance.
Kolkata Knight Riders have a combined 12.5 per cent chance of making the last four, either singly or jointly with Punjab Kings. Delhi Capitals also face a 12.5 per cent probability of reaching the top four on points, though any such outcome would likely involve a tie with Rajasthan Royals, Kolkata Knight Riders, or Chennai Super Kings. Chennai Super Kings face the steepest challenge, with their best-case scenario being a four-way tie for fourth place, carrying only a 9.4 per cent probability.
These probabilities are derived from an analysis of the 64 possible combinations of results for the remaining six matches. For each team, the likelihood of finishing in the top four, either singly or tied, was calculated by examining how many of these outcome combinations result in qualification.
