Houthi gains near Red Sea chokepoint put Egypt’s Suez revenue under pressure
Threats to Saudi-linked shipping could disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leaving Cairo to balance economic exposure with its alliance with Riyadh.
Houthi forces’ reported expansion around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is increasing pressure on Egypt, whose Suez Canal revenue depends on secure shipping through the Red Sea. The group reportedly controls Mayun, also known as Perim, and parts of Yemen’s nearby coast.
A Houthi spokesperson said ships could initially pass safely, except those from Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the strait has not yet been significantly reduced: Reuters reported 24 vessels transited on Saturday and 27 on Sunday, near the 10-day average. Kpler recorded 21 ships on Monday, compared with a mid-July average of 47.
The scale and duration of any disruption remain uncertain. Deutsche Welle reported that the Houthis appear to be signalling they do not intend to halt all traffic, while noting that control of Bab el-Mandeb would not automatically give the group control of the Suez Canal. Any broader restriction could nevertheless reduce traffic on the Asia-Europe route and weaken a key source of Egyptian income.
Houthi attacks in late 2023 had already disrupted Suez Canal business. International Monetary Fund data cited by Deutsche Welle put 2024 canal earnings about $6 billion lower, after Egypt had previously earned roughly $9 billion to $10 billion annually. The Suez Canal Authority reported revenue of $4.67 billion in the 2025–26 financial year, a 23 per cent rise.
Egypt is formally part of the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, but its participation has been described as largely symbolic. Deutsche Welle reported that Cairo is expected to favour restraint and diplomacy, reflecting Egypt’s past experience of costly intervention in Yemen and the limited success of military efforts to contain the Houthis.
The New Arab reportedly said the Houthis offered direct talks with Cairo on shipping security and that Egypt rejected the proposal over concerns it could be seen as recognising Houthi authority. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also reportedly travelled to Cairo seeking Egyptian support. Cairo’s position will depend on whether Houthi restrictions remain focused on Saudi-linked vessels or expand further.
