Historical data casts doubt on Rams’ Super Bowl dominance despite aggressive offseason
While general manager Les Snead’s high-stakes acquisitions have made the Rams prohibitive favourites, historical trends suggest a low probability of success for heavily tipped teams.
ESPN analyst Ryan Barnwell has published a comprehensive analysis of the 2026 Los Angeles Rams’ championship prospects, utilising historical data to contextualise the team’s status as the NFL’s most heavily favoured preseason side. The Rams have emerged as the prohibitive favourites for Super Bowl LXI following a series of aggressive offseason acquisitions, most notably the trade for defensive end Myles Garrett. However, Barnwell’s review of 15 previous 'superteams' since 1990 reveals a stark reality: only two of those heavily tipped squads ultimately won the championship.
The shift in the Rams’ standing is attributable to significant roster overhaul orchestrated by general manager Les Snead. In a move described as a high-stakes gamble, Los Angeles traded Jared Verse and three draft picks to the Cleveland Browns to secure the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The front office also bolstered the secondary by trading for cornerback Trent McDuffie and signing Jaylen Watson, while drafting Ty Simpson as a potential successor to veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. These moves have propelled the Rams to the top of the betting markets, with DraftKings odds implying a 12.5% probability of winning the title, a margin 5.1 percentage points higher than the next closest contenders, the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Barnwell’s analysis contrasts the current market confidence with the performance of 15 teams that held similar or greater advantages since 1990. The historical record is unforgiving for favourites. Notable failures include the 2007 New England Patriots, who completed a 16-0 regular season only to lose Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants, and the 2017 Patriots, who finished 13-3 but were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII. The 2025 season further illustrated this volatility, with preseason favourites such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Washington Commanders missing the playoffs entirely.
The article identifies several structural risks that could derail the Rams’ campaign. The team faces a difficult schedule, projected by ESPN’s Football Power Index as the second-toughest in the league, which includes multiple matchups against NFC West rivals Seattle and San Francisco. There are also concerns regarding the longevity of key players; Stafford is approaching 40 and has a history of injury, while receiver Puka Nacua is viewed as irreplaceable. Additionally, the Rams’ poor special teams performance in the previous season, which contributed to key losses, remains a vulnerability despite recent personnel changes.
Ultimately, the data suggests that while the Rams are the clear market favourites, their 12.5% implied win probability aligns with the historical success rate of such teams. Barnwell notes that if the 2026 season were simulated eight times, the Rams would be expected to win the championship only once. The analysis serves as a reminder that despite the accumulation of talent, the NFL’s inherent variance and the historical tendency for heavy favourites to underperform present significant hurdles for Los Angeles.
